mai po

One day before the Mai Po reserve was closed, flocks of cormorants were gliding peacefully across the foggy winter sky before reaching trees where they quietly settled down, ready to sit out the winter.A short distance away on the grassy edge of the rural wetland bordering Shenzhen, two staff from the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department were sporting full protective gear such as plastic boots, surgical masks and gloves, while collecting blobs of bird faeces for laboratory tests on avian flu. Who should we point the accusing fingers at the culprit for the swift spread of bird flu this year? Are migratory birds guilty? Or there is something to do with chickens? WHO spokeswoman Maria Cheng said recently the birds are a ``natural reservoir for the disease'', acting as carriers that don't get sick.This also prompted the Hong Kong government to order the closure of four aviaries and the Mai Po Nature Reserve in the northern New Territories. However, the theory that migratory birds may be causing the bird flu outbreak does not make any sense to Martin Williams, who has a doctorate in physical chemistry from Cambridge University and is also an editor of Autumn Bird Migration at Beidaihe. Williams, who said the closure was ridiculous, believes smugglers are to blame, citing previous cases of smuggling with one of them believed to have triggered Taiwan's outbreak. He also said the timing of the outbreak does not match migratory birds' flying pattern, which gives strong evidence that the birds did not spread the disease. He said it is ``time to look at science'' to answer the key question of how the deadly virus is spread. WWF Hong Kong, which runs the Mai Po Reserve, says hundreds of thousands of dollars will be lost due to cancellation of bird-watch tours during the month-long closure. Reserve manager Lew Young, while saying he respected the government's decision to seal it off, said that wild birds pose no immediate threat to public health. In fact, from the 7,600 faecal samples taken from birds settling in Mai Po last year, none gave a positive result on bird flu. Williams, who is a partner of First Step Nature Tours which guides bird-watch tours in the reserve, said the statistics show migratory birds are not spreading the disease. He said that, in July and August every year, many migratory waterfowls start flying from Russia or mainland China to wetlands and marshlands in the south where they winter. By October or November, many of them have reached their choices of stay, varying from as south as Vietnam to the Yangtze River on the mainland. Williams, 43, said the timing of the outbreak that erupted in the second half of last year does not fit migratory birds' flying pattern. On December 15, South Korea confirmed an outbreak of avian flu at a farm while Japan reported a similar outbreak on January 13. ``That is the time when migratory birds are settled in the south. They are not moving around very much by then,'' Williams, who has been studying birds since 1985, told MetroNews. He said the outbreak in Vietnam, which erupted in July according to media reports, is too early if it is caused by migratory birds, which were still up north in Russia. According to the Japan Times, the Indonesian government admits the deadly flu had appeared as early as September. ``Most migratory waterfowls do not reach down to Indonesia either. They are very rare there,'' Williams said. ``You take the notion that birds migrate and you draw some lines on the map. ``Knowing that they do carry original bird flu, you make a jump and say: `they carry H5N1','' he said, describing those who link bird flu with migratory birds as ``not respecting science''. He said the new strain of the virus is so fatal that birds will die fast before being able to transmit it from one place to another, citing the example of a dead falcon found in Tuen Mun last month that was later found to bear H5N1. The British New Scientist magazine, in its latest issue, claims that the virus could have evolved on the mainland as early as in the first half of last year and was spread through smuggling of poultry. Williams echos the allegation, citing reports that a shipment of duck meat from the mainland had H5N1 early last year. He also said the outbreak of bird flu in Taiwan last month can be traced to duck meat smuggled in from the mainland. ``There are hundreds of millions of chickens around Asia, especially in China. It is very difficult to make sure not one of them contains the virus,'' he said. ``It is easy to blame migratory birds. They don't vote. ``We don't perceive them as having a big economic value . . . as the poultry industry that is worth billions of dollars.'' the avid bird watcher said.